By Joshua Huff, sports editor
The Harvard Global Health Institute partnered with NPR to publish data measuring how many tests each state needed to conduct to begin adopting guidelines targeted towards the gradual reopening of states across the nation.
According to NPR, the nation has averaged nearly 248,000 daily tests throughout the past week. The White House said that the country will soon have enough testing capacity to double the daily amount. Yet, that falls significantly short of Harvard’s Global Health Institute’s proposal that the country needs to conduct more than 900,000 tests per day to properly combat the virus and diminish any threat of a resurgence.
The research group published a simulation on Thursday that estimates the number of testing needed for each state by May 15 to begin safely reopening. Based upon data, just a few states have exceeded the testing minimums: Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Per the data, Alabama will need to conduct nearly 8,817 tests per day (180 per 100K) to meet the minimum daily testing threshold by May 15. Through April 30-May 6, 2020, Alabama has averaged 4,152 tests per day (85 per 100K), which is far fewer than the estimated minimum. However, just 6% of tests have come back positive, which meets the recommended rate of 10% or lower that the WHO provided as the goal to relax stringent distancing orders.
Of note: Those testing estimates are geared around states continuing to issue social distancing guidelines through May 15.
Ashish Jha, director of the Global Health Institute, told NPR that Alabama’s estimated target of 8,817 per day should be thought of as a starting point. Without enough testing, and without proper contact tracing, its possible that states will see new outbreaks, he said.
“I think what people have to remember is that the virus isn’t gone,” Jha told NPR. “The disease isn’t gone. And it’s going to be with us for a while.”
Testing, however, should not be the end goal. It needs to be part of a strategy designed around a broader set of plans that local and state governments need to implement.