By John Goolsby, Prep Sports Editor and Johnny Sanders, Sports Editor
The Trussville Tribune’s Tribune Sports LIVE! editors were given the opportunity to use Kenneth Massey’s Massey Method to simulate the 2024 high school football season.
Massey Ratings. Photo credit: Massey
Tribune Sports LIVE! applied the Massey Rating system to the schedules of all eight teams in the Tribune’s coverage area ahead of the Tribune’s media days next week.
The Massey Ratings for high school football will be published on On3.com this fall.
On3 Sports: Photo credit: On3
Massey, a professor at Carson-Newman, created his formula in 1997 while attending Bluefield College.
After being used as one of six computer programs in the NCAA’s Bowl Championship Series, his formula gained national attention.
His method uses statistical modeling to assess the relative strength of teams based on their performance against opponents. The rating considers various factors to provide a comprehensive ranking and becomes more accurate as the season progresses.
The system primarily uses game outcomes, scores from previous games, schedule strength, home-field advantage, and iterations (refining algorithms).
While studies have shown that the system is accurate 70-75% of the time, it does, as all computer modeling, have limitations such as not accounting for real-life variables, teams not always performing up to their potential or performing above it, margins of victory over opponents, and comparative performance, to name a few.
With all the “fine print” out of the way, it is time to unveil the 2024 regular season simulated results:
Hewitt-Trussville: 8-2, 5-2
J.A.G. 42-7
Gadsden City 41-14
Vestavia 24-28
Hoover 31-24
Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa 34-21
Pinson 41-14
Thompson 17-36
Prattville 41-14
Oak Mountain 44-13
@ Tuscaloosa Co. 42-14
Clay-Chalkville: 8-2, 6-0
Hueytown 40-20
Ramsay 35-20
Pell City 42-7
Shades Valley 41-7
Thompson 14-34
Mountain Brook 34-21
Huffman 48-6
Oxford 37-17
Pinson 40-14
Vestavia 22-28
Center Point: 8-2, 4-2
Bessemer City 28-21
Fultondale 41-8
Lincoln 42-14
Jacksonville 27-32
St. Clair County 40-7
J.A.G. 27-24
Moody 28-25
Leeds 21-24
Springville 35-14
Woodlawn 41-13
Leeds: 8-2, 5-1
Mortimer Jordan 28-27
Shades Valley 28-23
Springville 31-14
Lincoln 35-7
Jacksonville 28-27
Briarwood 14-28
St. Clair County 42-7
Moody 24-27
Center Point 24-21
Pelham 21-20
Moody: 5-5, 5-1
Gainesville, GA 14-42
Oxford 14-35
Jacksonville 29-28
St. Clair County 40-7
Helena 20-37
Auburn 10-42
Center Point 25-28
Leeds 27-24
Springville 35-18
Lincoln 42-14
Shades Valley: 4-5, 2-4
Woodlawn 41-14
Leeds 23-28
Oxford 14-36
Clay-Chalkville 7-41
Pinson 21-31
Cherokee Co. 28-26
Huffman 40-14
Pell City 31-23
Mountain Brook 13-41
Springville: 4-6, 1-5
Ashville 42-14
Fairview 23-30
Leeds 14-31
Alma Bryant 21-28
Lincoln 28-20
Jacksonville 20-38
St. Clair County 35-14
Moody 18-35
Center Point 14-35
Corner 32-27
Pinson Valley: 3-7, 3-3
Central – Phenix City 7-42
Gardendale 27-28
Huffman 42-7
Oxford 21-32
Shades Valley 31-21
Hewitt 14-41
Mountain Brook 14-32
Pell City 35-14
Clay-Chalkville 14-40
Hueytown 21-31
Massey Ratings can be found at https://masseyratings.com
On3 can be found at https://www.on3.com
