by Jeff Poor, commentary
It’s hard not to be pessimistic if you are a Republican right now.
Even though polls have been unreliable lately, national generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a double-digit lead heading into November.
Oil is routinely touching the $ 100-a-barrel level, keeping gasoline and diesel prices high.
Republicans have adopted an anti-socialism narrative that does not seem to be penetrating as much as one would hope in an election cycle that historically is difficult for the party in the White House.
It did not start out this way. In his first 100 days, President Donald Trump orchestrated significant changes in the federal government. The border situation improved. Elon Musk was cutting waste with DOGE. The administration pursued a foreign policy that ended armed conflicts around the globe.
For much of 2025, it seemed reasonable to be optimistic about the country’s direction.
It was almost too good to be true, just as it had been eight years earlier.
Despite a contrived Russia-Trump collusion narrative, the economy buoyed Trump’s 2020 reelection chances. And if not for the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump might have won reelection.
This time, the albatross around the neck of this administration is the armed conflict against Iran with no resolution in sight.
Things were shaping up pretty well for Republicans earlier this year. With the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 mandating minority-majority congressional districts, the GOP was poised to blunt the midterm cycle’s historic norms with redistricting gains.
Additionally, loyal opposition Democrats are engaged in their own civil war that the party had been holding off since Hillary Clinton conceded the Democratic Party presidential nomination to Barack Obama in 2008.
The struggle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party pits old-line establishment Democrats against so-called Democratic Socialists.
While the energy within the Democratic Party was with the “socialists,” many of the nominees are unelectable on the general election ballot, giving Republicans a better chance of victory in November.
That may still be in play in some places. The prevailing anti-Trump mood among the Democratic base is in full effect, which could affect the party’s ideological balance.
In other words, the sentiment is causing an overreaction among Democratic Party loyalists who could care less about electability.
They have plenty to be upset about, given they have followed their party’s long-standing hierarchy, which has led to losses to what they were told was the worst-case scenario in two of the last three presidential elections.
Who could blame them for abandoning not only the “safe” picks but a “safe” moderation so as not to scare away the average American voter, because it has not worked out as they were told.
Yet, when gas prices are approaching $6 a gallon nationally, voters may be open to trying new things like a different way of doing the economy, even if history has shown that it may not produce the advertised outcome.
Regardless of why, it is a good bet Democrats will have a very good night on November 3. The main thing Republicans could do is to do enough to keep any changes from becoming permanent.
Once, Florida was a swing state. Now, it is solid Republican. The same goes for Colorado, but it is now solidly blue. Ohio was a reliable swing state. Now it leans Republican in most elections.
The so-called blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are trending Republican, so Republicans need to mitigate enough of the impact of the 2026 midterms for those states to remain in play for a 2028 presidential election.
The current election trend will affect Alabama. So much so that President Trump is making a campaign stop in Mobile next month.
Suddenly, Alabama’s second congressional district is in play because of GOP challenges. Incumbent Democrat Congressman Shomari Figures has a reasonable chance at winning a seat that was redistricted for a Republican win.
A handful of legislative seats in the Birmingham and Huntsville areas are up for grabs because of national politics.
While national Republicans are trying to make hay out of the socialism-communism scare, state and local level Republicans have to engineer their own messaging. It won’t be enough for a Madison County lawmaker to scream “AOC” to win reelection.
And if Republicans lose now in Madison or Vestavia Hills, they may not win again in those areas for some time. Incumbents are hard to beat, and this legislature may not give a Republican challenger enough over the next four years to flip a seat back from Democrat to Republican.
It is bleak out there for Republicans, and being braced for losing is perfectly reasonable. Historic norms, economic challenges and a revved-up opposition to the incumbent president are a lot to overcome in one cycle.
However, the show goes on beyond 2026, or even 2028. Lose a battle but don’t lose the war.
Jeff Poor
Don’t let 2026 be permanent
by Jeff Poor, commentary
It’s hard not to be pessimistic if you are a Republican right now.
Even though polls have been unreliable lately, national generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a double-digit lead heading into November.
Oil is routinely touching the $ 100-a-barrel level, keeping gasoline and diesel prices high.
Republicans have adopted an anti-socialism narrative that does not seem to be penetrating as much as one would hope in an election cycle that historically is difficult for the party in the White House.
It did not start out this way. In his first 100 days, President Donald Trump orchestrated significant changes in the federal government. The border situation improved. Elon Musk was cutting waste with DOGE. The administration pursued a foreign policy that ended armed conflicts around the globe.
For much of 2025, it seemed reasonable to be optimistic about the country’s direction.
It was almost too good to be true, just as it had been eight years earlier.
Despite a contrived Russia-Trump collusion narrative, the economy buoyed Trump’s 2020 reelection chances. And if not for the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump might have won reelection.
This time, the albatross around the neck of this administration is the armed conflict against Iran with no resolution in sight.
Things were shaping up pretty well for Republicans earlier this year. With the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 mandating minority-majority congressional districts, the GOP was poised to blunt the midterm cycle’s historic norms with redistricting gains.
Additionally, loyal opposition Democrats are engaged in their own civil war that the party had been holding off since Hillary Clinton conceded the Democratic Party presidential nomination to Barack Obama in 2008.
The struggle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party pits old-line establishment Democrats against so-called Democratic Socialists.
While the energy within the Democratic Party was with the “socialists,” many of the nominees are unelectable on the general election ballot, giving Republicans a better chance of victory in November.
That may still be in play in some places. The prevailing anti-Trump mood among the Democratic base is in full effect, which could affect the party’s ideological balance.
In other words, the sentiment is causing an overreaction among Democratic Party loyalists who could care less about electability.
They have plenty to be upset about, given they have followed their party’s long-standing hierarchy, which has led to losses to what they were told was the worst-case scenario in two of the last three presidential elections.
Who could blame them for abandoning not only the “safe” picks but a “safe” moderation so as not to scare away the average American voter, because it has not worked out as they were told.
Yet, when gas prices are approaching $6 a gallon nationally, voters may be open to trying new things like a different way of doing the economy, even if history has shown that it may not produce the advertised outcome.
Regardless of why, it is a good bet Democrats will have a very good night on November 3. The main thing Republicans could do is to do enough to keep any changes from becoming permanent.
Once, Florida was a swing state. Now, it is solid Republican. The same goes for Colorado, but it is now solidly blue. Ohio was a reliable swing state. Now it leans Republican in most elections.
The so-called blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are trending Republican, so Republicans need to mitigate enough of the impact of the 2026 midterms for those states to remain in play for a 2028 presidential election.
The current election trend will affect Alabama. So much so that President Trump is making a campaign stop in Mobile next month.
Suddenly, Alabama’s second congressional district is in play because of GOP challenges. Incumbent Democrat Congressman Shomari Figures has a reasonable chance at winning a seat that was redistricted for a Republican win.
A handful of legislative seats in the Birmingham and Huntsville areas are up for grabs because of national politics.
While national Republicans are trying to make hay out of the socialism-communism scare, state and local level Republicans have to engineer their own messaging. It won’t be enough for a Madison County lawmaker to scream “AOC” to win reelection.
And if Republicans lose now in Madison or Vestavia Hills, they may not win again in those areas for some time. Incumbents are hard to beat, and this legislature may not give a Republican challenger enough over the next four years to flip a seat back from Democrat to Republican.
It is bleak out there for Republicans, and being braced for losing is perfectly reasonable. Historic norms, economic challenges and a revved-up opposition to the incumbent president are a lot to overcome in one cycle.
However, the show goes on beyond 2026, or even 2028. Lose a battle but don’t lose the war.