A couple of weeks ago, I posed in this space a question to which I offered no answer. Actually, I posed several such questions, but one of them in particular has been nagging at me with such gnat-like persistence that I have to type out some thoughts just to get my head around it.
With that caveat — namely, that I am (I hope) about to engage you in some semi-extemporaneous sharing of persistent hearsay, informed speculation, thumbnail analysis and unmitigated spitballing — let us consider the question of whether Birmingham Mayor William Bell has designs on becoming U.S. Congressman William Bell in 2016.
The possibility that Bell might challenge Terri Sewell, the three-term incumbent representative of the 7th Congressional District, has been kicking around for some time, at least since Bell won his first full-fledged term as mayor in 2013. When I say “kicking around,” I mean that it is something that has been a matter of conjecture among political types and other observers who are interested in the future of the city and curious about whether there will be a next — and final — act in Bell’s long and checkered public life.
But is it something that Bell is actively considering? I can’t tell you for sure. I’ll admit that I haven’t asked him, mostly because there’s no reason he should offer a straightforward answer at this stage of the game. Certainly there’s no reason the mayor would choose me as the vessel of such a momentous announcement, given the fact that, as some of you may be aware, he and I do not correspond on a regular basis.
What I can tell you is what I have heard from various quarters including associates of the mayor’s, which is that Bell is testing the waters for a run against Sewell. Among other things, according to one such person, that means public opinion polling, and without confirming details of any survey or surveys that have been done to measure the relative strength of prospective challengers, that person allowed to me that Bell “is polling well.”
As a purely political matter — that is, the pros and cons of Bell’s making the race, and his chances of winning it — it makes a lot of sense. To begin with, he can run without giving up his current position, since the next mayoral election is not until 2017. If nothing else, with the mayor on the campaign trail in the 7th District, the city could realize substantial cost savings against his global travel expenditures from previous years; but of much greater import to Bell’s consideration of whether to run is that if he loses the race for Congress, he’s still mayor.
Actually, therein lies the only real risk for Bell. He doesn’t like to lose. Okay, nobody does, including yours truly, but William Bell takes it worse than most. Without going into the details here, I’d urge you to take a look back at Bell’s behavior in the wake of the biggest loss of his career, in the 1999 mayoral race against underdog Bernard Kincaid. Bell, who was serving as interim mayor at the time of the defeat, went back to being president of the City Council, from which position he essentially conducted a two-year vendetta against Kincaid, with collateral damage still felt in the culture of City Hall and in unmet needs and misplaced priorities that touch virtually every corner of Birmingham to the present day.
It’s one thing not to take losing well. It’s another thing entirely to place the redemption of one’s ego above the good of the city one purports to serve. If Bell lost a race for Congress, you can bet that he’d be inclined to spend some indeterminate amount of time and political capital taking revenge against those he deemed responsible, again at the expense of his fiduciary responsibility to the city and its people. Beyond that, it would weaken him for what then would be his only option other than voluntary retirement, the campaign for re-election as mayor in 2017.
Having said all of that, let me be quick to add that I don’t think Bell would lose. To the contrary, if he were to devote the entirety of himself and his considerable political talents to the effort, it’s my opinion that he would defeat Sewell handily in the Democratic primary, which is tantamount to election in the majority-black Seventh, the only Congressional district in Alabama that remains in Democratic hands.
Sewell has been neither impressive nor particularly effective, her reportedly (at least at one time) close relationship with the president and Mrs. Obama notwithstanding, and there’s every reason to believe that large numbers of voters in Birmingham might be inclined to consider their mayor an attractive alternative. Add to that the possibility, also rumored, that a challenger of even moderate strength emerges from the mostly rural Black Belt counties that also are part of the district, and if you’re bullish on William Bell — and the mayor certainly is that — Sewell starts to look extremely vulnerable.
There are other reasons why a run for Congress might appeal to Bell. The first is his aforementioned ego, the driving force behind such taxpayer funded indulgences as his willingness to travel considerable distances to appear on television and the phalanx of security and entourage that accompany him in public, and surely must surpass that of any chief executive of any mid-sized municipality on the planet. As a congressman, he’d be at the heart of America’s political culture; as a highly telegenic one who visibly enjoys the trappings of office, he’d be readily available to network news shows, invited to a lot of high-toned parties and reception, and generally given celebrity treatment at every turn.
More substantively, Bell might just be looking at a move to Washington as a way of getting out of Birmingham in the nick of time. That the city’s finances have taken a beating during the successive administrations of Larry Langford and Bell is one of the worst-kept secrets in town, though in true Birmingham fashion, most people seem to consider it impolite to talk about in other than hushed tones — which suits the folks at City Hall, who generally decline to talk about it at all. Those chickens are on their way home to roost, and are likely to have settled in completely by 2017. From Bell’s perspective, it might be smart to let someone else reap that whirlwind.
Finally, there’s the simple fact that Bell will turn 66 years old on the first day of next month. While that no longer qualifies as elderly, it’s no insult to the mayor to speculate that his mortality, political and otherwise, might be beginning to weigh on his mind. It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there, as Bob Dylan — no spring chicken himself, but still mighty active — wrote nearly 20 years ago, when he was still in his 50s. If it is Bell’s ambition to add a federal office to his list of political accomplishments, this might be his best chance, as well as his last one.
And now I’ll tell you something that is likely to surprise you, at least if you read this column with any regularity: It is my considered opinion that William Bell probably would be a very good congressman for Birmingham.
Criticism of the extent of his travels as mayor is well justified, but there is no denying that the considerable time Bell has spent in the nation’s capital has made him very well known there. People I trust tell me that the mayor has built a strong network of contacts and relationships, including what I’m told is a direct line of communication with Obama. An endorsement from the president probably would seal a Congressional race for Bell, and while Obama would be leaving office at the same time Congressman Bell arrived in Washington, opportunities to leverage that relationship would remain.
Which makes me think that Bell could do a great deal of good for Birmingham in Washington. The same attributes that work against his being the mayor that Birmingham needs as it moves into the future — an apparent aversion to hard work and a lack of regard for administrative details, to name a couple — are ones that need not stand in the way of his being a highly effective congressman. Likewise, his considerable assets — he looks good, is intelligent and articulate, and understands the inner workings of politics and government — would combine with the relationships he already has built in D.C. to position him to hit the ground running in the halls of Congress.
I’ve said this for a long time, but I’m beginning to conceive of its meaning in a completely different way: Getting William Bell out of City Hall is the best thing that could happen to Birmingham.
A previous version of this article mistakenly claimed Terri Sewell represented the 6th Congressional District. She actually represents the 7th Congressional District.